PS3 or Wii: A Developer’s Conundrum

by Jason McMaster

Ernest Adams, Freelance Writer, Game Designer and contributor, has written another entry for his series, “The Designer’s Notebook,” about the PS3 and Wii. The question he poses in this column is “which will developers want to work on?” I believe that’s something we’d all like to know. Adams, in his column, says:

“For a long time, I’ve had a theory that there’s always room for two-and-a-half game consoles in the market – that is, two main contenders battling for first place and an also-ran that survives but never stands a chance of doing better than third. Being either first or second is normally good enough to guarantee healthy sales and long-term survival. The more critical question is, who will be the also-ran?”

He then goes on to discuss the merits of the Wii and PS3 from a developer’s standpoint. The PS3, he says, has computing power, and there’s no doubt that it’s the most powerful console ever made, whereas the Wii has interactivity on its side, with the Wii remote. He then puts forth a theory on the final outcome:

“So who, at the end of the day, will be the also-ran in this generation of consoles? On the global scale, I’d say it could well be neither the PS3 or the Wii, but the Xbox 360. The PS3 will win over the hardcore gamers who have to have the fastest, most amazing machine available. The Wii will skim off the younger players and those who don’t have as much money to spend.
Both have the advantage of being made in Japan, so they’ll crowd the Xbox right out of that market. In the US and Europe, it’s harder to say, but I see the Xbox’s early start as more of a liability than a benefit. They’ve racked up several million sales, but they can no longer claim to be the latest, greatest thing – especially as the PS3 plays Blu-Ray disks out of the box, but HD-DVD is only available for the Xbox as an add-on. The Dreamcast got an early start too, and look how that ended.”

It definitely could turn out that way, but who can really say at this point? What about the hardcore gamers who don’t want to spend $600 dollars to play Madden or FIFA? Surely that demographic isn’t completely covered by the Wii. Who knows if the Wii will even still be going strong this time next year? Maybe the “wow” factor will have worn off in regard to the controller. Each system has individual strengths.

The biggest advantage Microsoft has isn’t claiming to be “the latest and greatest”, but having a second generation of games that look great and play even better. One reason being that they’ve had their dev-kits (early versions of consoles for use by development houses for testing games) out longer, and another is their development tools are of higher quality. That’s what coming out first gets for you.

Sony has its name and the fact that it really has developed a powerful machine. I was skeptical of the PS3 at first, especially after spending so much time following it up to release and listening to the Sony Corporation say one bizarre thing after another, but they’ve really produced a high quality console. The fact that you can display movies and games at 1080p is pretty great as well as being able to swap out the hard drive. The weak launch titles may not do much for initial sales, but when the PS3 starts seeing some quality titles, it’s going to be something else.

Finally, Nintendo. What else can you say about them? Zelda, Mario Brothers, Metroid and Pokemon are all ridiculously popular and will always sell a system. They are currently making a profit on every Wii sold and have been in the black for years. Nintendo may not razzle-dazzle, but they’re not going anywhere.

“Who’s going to win this generation?”, seems to be the question that everyone is asking. The real answer, as of right now at least, is “who cares?” What we need to do, as consumers and enthusiasts, is buy your favorite console, get the games you want to play and enjoy it. We’re in the golden age right now, people, and we should be savoring every moment of it.

(c) www.gigagamez.com

No software drought for Wii, pledges Fils-Aime

Big titles on the way next year

Nintendo of America president Reggie Fils-Aime has promised that the Wii will not suffer from a lack of software titles as other Nintendo consoles have done in the past.

Speaking to Newsweek, Fils-Aime highlighted three games - Zelda: Twilight Princess ("arguably the best game we've ever made"), Metroid Prime 3 and Super Mario Galaxy - as examples of key titles for the Wii.

He said that Metroid was down for a release "early in 2007", while Mario Galaxy will be "strategically" timed "to make sure that we continue driving momentum through 2007".

"How do I answer the question, "Will there be no drought," and "How will we make sure that there are fantastic titles for Wii?" The answer is Zelda, Metroid and Mario. Which is a pretty darn good lineup," Fils-Aime concluded.

When then asked if he'd repeat George Bush's infamous "read my lips" pledge to deliver games at a steady pace, the NoA president added, "I thought I just did."

Speaking to MTV News recently, Fils-Aime said that Metroid Prime 3: Corruption would be the next big first party title after WarioWare: Smooth Moves (January) and Mario Party 8 (March), while Mario Galaxy would arrive sometime between March and Christmas 2007.

(c) www.gamesindustry.biz

Consoles in 2007

2007 is going to be a very interesting year for the console wars. Nintendo is off to a fantastic start with the Wii, and it appears the system built specifically to appeal to non-gamers and broaden the market has done just that—everyone who plays one says it's fun and wants one. That initial enthusiasm doesn't always translate into sales, though, much less extended sales. Once the talk shows and morning shows and news updates about the "hot holiday items" wear off, will those non-gaming masses still care? Will the idea of possibly purchasing or trying out this thing even cross their minds? Will Nintendo be able to keep the hot titles flowing fast enough to keep the core gaming demographic interested? After all, Zelda was a huge hit at launch, but nothing else has done very well, and the critical reception for other Wii titles is fairly poor. Nintendo's job throughout 2007 will be to keep the Wii fresh, keep it in the mainstream press as much as possible, and target it toward an expanding market that reaches beyond core gamers. It also has to prove that the sad reputation of the GameCube—only 2 or 3 Nintendo franchise games a year really worth getting for it—won't hold true. Nintendo needs to crank out the Wii hits, and bring forth plenty of great exclusive games from third-party publishers. That's not an easy task.

Sony has its work cut out for it. Despite the company's protests, everybody knows (and sales records have confirmed) that shipments have been below expectation and Sony has to make desperate improvements to increase supply. With a major region launch coming in the Spring (that usually requires stockpiling hundreds of thousands of units), that's going to be tough. The PS3 is at a price disadvantage, and Sony is already taking a big loss on each unit sold. It will be hard for them to reduce the price, but that needs to happen quickly. Many of the hot PS3 exclusives, like Metal Gear Solid 4 and Final Fantasy XIII, are only maybe going to be done in time for a 2007 release. In short, Sony has precious little time to lower the PS3's price, fix all the little software flaws and glitches, add competitive online features to better stack up against Xbox Live, and release totally awesome exclusive games. Sony will be very busy in 2007.

Oddly enough, Microsoft seems to be in the best position moving into 2007. Its approach is less risky than Nintendo's and less reliant on shaking up the buying habits of millions of non-gamers. Thanks in part to some software delays (like Forza Motorsport 2, the lineup of exclusive titles for 2007 looks very good. Even the first six months of the year has several potential blockbusters in store. Thanks in part to Blue Dragon and some other imminent releases, Japan is starting to take notice of the Xbox 360. Sales are still not stellar and it is doubtful that we'll see a huge explosion in Japanese Xbox 360 sales in 2007, but the numbers should climb from "insignificant" to "a meaningful part of the business." And then there's Halo 3, part of a franchise so big that it will probably be responsible for millions of 360 purchases alone. Grand Theft Auto 4 will ship simultaneously on the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360, taking a very important feather out of Sony's cap. What was once an exclusive to Sony's platform and a big system-seller will now be available on both platforms, and the 360 will be the less expensive of the two ways to jump into the game.

Microsoft is entering the second year of production for the Xbox 360. Costs are already under control, with analysts claiming that Microsoft is already breaking even (or better) on each unit sold. With a move to smaller, cooler, more energy efficient 65 nanometer processors assumed to happen in the first half of 2007, the time is ripe for an Xbox 360 price cut. This is going to be hard for Sony to match with the PlayStation 3. Exciting things are afoot with Xbox Live. Microsoft added a video marketplace this year: Will that expand to music in 2007? Will there be a subscription model? The XNA Game Studio Express program that lets common programmers make Xbox 360 games without buying expensive development kits was just released. In 2007, we should see some sort of method for all Xbox 360 users to sample these homebrew projects. If this takes off, it could be a major point of differentiation between platforms.

Microsoft's main challenge is going to be making sure that launching early doesn't turn around to bite them. It has to remind consumers that the Xbox 360 is every bit as "next-generation" as the PlayStation 3 and convince them that the lower price does not mean inferior graphics or gameplay. The Xbox 360 has to continue to be seen as the "hot new thing" or risk being increasingly pushed aside along with the previous generation PS2, GameCube, and Xbox. It also has to make good on many of its release dates, and avoid pushing big franchises back to 2008.

The big unknowns? What will Microsoft do with the hardware? Will the next iteration of the Xbox 360 be more than just less expensive? Will it be quieter? Will it include built-in Wi-Fi, a bigger hard drive, or an HDMI port?

(c) www.extremetech.com